By Musbahu ElYakub
One of the statistical problems we used to enjoy working on as young scientists was the ‘random walk problem’. How do you predict the path and end point of drunkard walking in an open space? You up the game by putting boundary conditions. It was a sweet probability problem.
From 2015 to 2019, I enjoyed making political predictions on general elections. But I was a little more cautious on making predictions on primary elections. Even as the pool is smaller in primary elections, the delegates’ minds and what influences them are more difficult to predict than the electorates’ in a general election. My general elections predictions were reasonably spot on over the period. Way better than Mallam Ahmadu’s and Uchescos’ 😏. Even when I ventured to predict that there was a ‘possibility’ of the two major parties to presenting Northeners for 2023, I am fifty-percent spot on.
But predicting 2023 presidential elections will definitely be ‘risky’, and certainly too early at this point. Even as the elections approach there could emerge other variables to turn things on their head. Predicting 2023 presidential election will be difficult for at least a few reasons:
1. The two major candidates are very similar in their ‘ways and approach’ to political affairs. They were both in the SDP and later the ACN together. Even when they were in differring AD, AC and PDP camps, they were good friends and saw eye to eye. I think of the two, the one that will have an edge will be the one that can spring up new tricks of the trade unknown to other. Quite honestly, any of the two could!
2. Both major candidates are really resolved, some would say ‘desperate’, to win. Tinubu has the advantage of bidding his time and going for the kill at the best time possible only. He is therefore throwing everything he has and has not! Atiku, on the other hand, has experience of what worked and what hadn’t in presidential elections. People easily forgot that Atiku was able to get some eleven million votes by campaigning in only nineteen states as against incumbent President Buhari’s fifteen million votes after campaigning in the thirty-six states. That was no average achievement. People also don’t realise that Tinubu’s SW is, in terms of votes, only marginally more APC than PDP! If Atiku can leverage on his experiences as a ‘Regular Presidential Contestant’ AND come up with new games, he can carry the day.
3. PDP might be in a weak position as the opposition party without ‘free and limitless’ resources, but the APC is an emotionally draining party. Buhari is a leader inclined to create drama by his historical refusal to nip avoidable conflicts in the bud. The APC has failed many of its own followers and many might punish it by voting for PDP, Labour Party and NNPP. Some disenfranchised APC officials and political office holders are already living the party. By the time running mates are chosen, some people might also be unhappy.
4. The ‘they are thieves’ mantra by APC is unlikely to sway people in 2023 as it did in the past. The two major candidates are seen almost as the same brushstrokes as far as integrity matters are concerned. The post by a young man on social media that Atiku can go ahead and sell not just the NNPC but also the National Anthem 🤨, tells you a little of how many people from APC strongholds feel.
5. Both major candidates will be hurt by Kwankwaso and Peter Obi. Tinubu has been good in cutting deals with sitting presidents in return for protection of his foothold in the SW. Can he pull the same trick now that the roles are somewhat reversed? Even if he can, it may only be with Kwankwaso as Peter Obi is unlikely to play any game on that basis. On the other side of the coin, many influence peddlers in APC have their own long standing relationships with Atiku also.
6. At no time in our political history have politicians felt no qualms about crisscrossing party lines like in this Republic. The alignments and realignments will, therfore, continue even after all the candidates for all the elective positions are known. In other words, the ‘betrayals’ are also just begining.
7. No matter what we may feel or say about our electoral umpire, they have come a long way since the days of Maurice Iwu!
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Beyond being hopeful and simplistic, 2023 looks both tight and interesting. It may become a very legalistic case, too. It is, for now, easier to predict the path of a drunk than how the elections might go. Twenty-twenty three presidential elections is beyond, a random walk problem!
Photo: Who’s the ‘drunk’ that will breast the tape?
