By Aminu Kutama
A recent THISDAY poll – The Explainer – released by the THISDAY 2023 Election Centre, has predicted a runoff in the 2023 presidential elections.
The poll released on Tuesday predicts that with the changing realities in next year’s electoral permutations, there is an increasing likelihood that the first ballot at the February 25 presidential election may not produce a clear winner.
Permutations for the 2023 presidential election have become more difficult with the emergence of two more major candidates in Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party.
By implication, there may be a run-off in the presidential bout before a clear winner is returned by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
Although, both Kwankwaso and Obi are predicted to change the outcome of the election, the poll still indicates it to be a fight between the ruling APC and the opposition PDP.
With their current standing, the presidential candidate of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar, can still boast 21 states, where he is certain to get 25 per cent, while his All Progressives Congress (APC) rival, Bola Tinubu, is confident of 20 states, where he can also pull his weight.
The candidates of Labour Party, Peter Obi, and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Rabiu Kwankwaso, follow as third and fourth in that order with insignificant postings in many states to satisfy the constitutional requirement of 25 per cent of votes cast in 24 states.
Some of the factors responsible for the new realities include the presence of the candidates in each of the states, their structures and support base, capacity to mobilise, the contents of their respective manifestos, ethnic sentiments, their popularity and name recognition, as well as financial war chest.
While the factors function differently from zone to zone, those responsible for the state-by-state analysis also differ in many respects, with the political parties playing defining roles as well.
