Is Edo a Crystal Ball for 2023?


Babangida Ahmad

With a little over two years to 2023 and just a little over a week from the Edo State governorship election, Edo 2020 can be perfectly seen as a midterm election and a backward projection of what is to come in 2023.

A lot of factors made 2020 Edo State a barometer for Nigeria’s political direction. It is one of the most eagerly awaited elections in the country. Its results were keenly followed by Nigerians.

A Scorecard for APC’s Performance

If there is anything that made Nigerians became interested in Edo’s 2020 election is the seeming disappointment they received from APC’s 5 years in office.

APC was overwhelmingly voted into office, in 2015, with the hope that it will turn things around. It was generally believed, with the coming of APC, Nigeria will turn a new leaf, there will be a new Nigeria.

The seeming failure of APC to deliver on its campaign promises and falling short of the expectations of many Nigerians made it find an entry in the Nigerians’ “black-book”. APC failed woefully, according to many Nigerians.

Security, corruption and good governance were the selling points of APC during the 2015 campaigns. It labelled previous governments as non-performers and squanderers of the goodwill and opportunities of Nigerians. It promised security, zero tolerance to corruption, corrupt system, and corrupt individuals, rule of law, support for masses, and rapid economic development. Five years down the line Nigerians are witnessing insecurity on a scale that has never been imagined. Cases of corruption are on the rise with no sign of action from the government. The promise of good and purposeful government is just a mirage, in many people’s opinion.

The best grade on the scorecard of APC can’t be better than an E.

Bola Ahmed Tinubu

From 1999 Bola Ahmed Tinubu has an eye on the presidency of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. As governor of Lagos state, the choice of his cabinet is a clear indication of where he was heading. He consolidated his plan by having a grip hold on the affairs of Lagos state and the South West after leaving office.

It is apparent that his political differential equations had a general solution that yielded APC. It is seen as no mistake or coincidence that Tinubu has an immense influence on the government of the day. As a “National Leader” his footprints of influence are found everywhere.

In making his road to the presidency very easy, Tinubu, directly or indirectly, has taken control of the party’s apparatus. Whoever is viewed as a stumbling block has been “cleared”. Tinubu was having a clear road for his journey to the presidency.

The ambition of Tinubu didn’t go down well for so many members of APC. It caused disenchantment in the party. This led to the ousting of Oshiomhole as the national chairman of the party. It also played a role in APC’s failure in Edo election.


With no sign of APC’s scorecard getting any better and the growing disappointments being expressed by many Nigerians, the fortunes of APC in 2023 can’t buy a chicken feed. Add the Tinubu’s ambition to that, it will take a miracle for APC to make it to the leadership of the country in 2023.


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