By Abubakar Widi-Jalo
With the defection and adoption of NNPC, PDP is effectively dead in kano. If other PDP stalwarts in the northwest are also dissatisfied with the arrangements at PDP, they might also jump on the NNPP making the NNPP a formidable party.
If Kwankwaso is able to achieve this, he will effectively put himself and NNPP in a position of negotiating strength with other major political parties and major political players in the country for a posible coalition/merger.
From what I have observed, Tinubu is undecided on the party to fly his ambition.
If Osinbanjo gets the presidential ticket ahead of him, Tinubu who holds the ace in the southwest can easily jump ship and form an alliance with Kwankwaso.
Tinubu still has Lagos in his pockets, Kwankwaso’s support base is kano and can deliver.
Kano and Lagos have the highest number of voters in Nigeria.
Another possibility is Kwankwaso concentrating at north west and sweeping many legislative seats.
We might witness a repeat of the 1979 election where NPN won the presidential elections but failed to form the majority at the senate and the house of reps.
They had to form an alliance with Ziks NPP who had 16 senate seats and 17 house of reps seats.
Kano has the most seats in the legislature. If NNPP expands beyond the northwest, they can easily sweep many senate and house of reps seats.
If this happens, APC who visibly have cracks in their ranks with at least 4 governors and four states blinking and shaking will be weakened both in the north west and south west.
The north central can easily be swayed.
The NNPP banana can also be dangled at an aggrieved south east.
The APC congress will determine alot.
It will all depend on how happy or aggrieved the jagaban is.
Under rate Kwankwaso and jagaban at your peril.
Also anything new appeals to people, NNPP will give people that opportunity to try something new.
APC and PDP have almost ran out of slogans.
The NNPP is the 3rd force that could decide the presidency and legislative seats in 2023